INVESTMENT SUMMARY -- Q1 2025
INVESTMENT SUMMARY -- Q1 2025
Overvalued stock indices at the end of last year, coupled with the Trump debacles of DOGE and silly Tariffs (taxes) has rattled markets. I had predicted a drop of about 15 – 20 percent in my last post of December 15th. It looks like we have reached that point. Declines of the most famous stocks from their all time highs include :
MSFT, down 16.4%
NVDA, down 20.4%
TSLA, down 40.6%
AMZN, down 13.8%
GOOG, down 18.4%
No one is immune amidst the obscene uncertainty of Caligula Trump – a man who has no shame. The world order has changed with Europe, China, Canada, and Mexico now seen as commercial enemies of the US. Russia, Ukraine, The South China Sea, and the Gaza Riviera add to the complicated global morass in which we find ourselves. Of course, jack-in the box Musk only considers this “temporary pain.”
Meantime, to add to our woes and to pay for proposed tax cuts (for the rich), Trump will slash Medicaid.(Health care for the poor). It’s the only large pot where true cuts can come from. Every other cut will be paltry by comparison. The Senate will have to approve this nonsense, but let’s hope there are some sane Republican senators who will block the proposed carnage.
The only glint of good news is that AI continues to deliver. NVDA had a blowout quarter, and Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO if you have been living under a rock) , noted that China’s Deep Seek provides more opportunity not less! ( No need to get into weeds about time test scaling , training model scaling, inference, RAG, and Agents here) . Just trust Uncle Jensen and Nvidia will continue to deliver for at least one more year. Neither AMZN nor MSFT can meet demand for AI compute and services, underlining that AI is not a flash in the pan. It is real.
Stay the course folks. If you are like me, you are not a trader, and only invest for the long run and in stocks which have:
a) Moats (Technical, distribution etc.)
b) Good growth ( more than 10% annually)
c) Oodles of free cash flow generated every quarter
Unfortunately, I don’t see the Trump turbulence ending any time soon. This means that the market will be whipsawed, and equity prices will be volatile and often incomprehensible. It’s simply not the right time to put any excess cash to work.
In the meantime, get on the waiting list for the new waterfront condominiums in the Gaza Strip. Send me a check of $ 5 to hold your place in line. There will be no refunds. Finally, sell your Tesla or be placed into the bucket of the uncivilized.